地缘阴云与宽松预期交织 黄金强势格局有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,790.97 per ounce on September 23, closing at $3,763.93, marking a 0.46% increase [1]. - The ongoing anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is providing strong momentum for the gold market [1][5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving NATO's warnings to Russia, are heightening investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted a challenging economic landscape, with inflation exceeding expectations and a weak job market raising concerns [5]. - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding potential interest rate cuts in October and December, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [5]. - The expectation of a more accommodative monetary policy cycle is providing robust support for gold prices amid market volatility [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - NATO's strong warnings to Russia regarding its actions in Estonia have intensified uncertainties in international relations, impacting global capital markets [3]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is seen as a critical factor influencing market dynamics, with potential implications for gold demand as investors seek stability [4].