经合组织上调今年全球经济增长预期至3.2%

Group 1 - The OECD's mid-term economic outlook report predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, while growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, consistent with the June prediction [1] - The report highlights stronger-than-expected resilience in global economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, during the first half of 2025 [1] - The report warns of significant risks to the global economic outlook, including potential increases in tariff rates, renewed inflation pressures, heightened concerns over fiscal risks, and reassessment of financial market risks [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that the U.S. economic growth rate will decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, further slowing to 1.5% in 2026, due to the offsetting effects of tariffs and tightened immigration policies against strong investment growth in high-tech industries [1] - The Eurozone's economic growth is projected to be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026 [1] - The G20 countries' overall inflation rate is expected to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with core inflation rates in developed economies projected to fall to 2.6% and 2.5% in the next two years [1] Group 3 - The report recommends that countries enhance cooperation within the global trade system while improving the transparency and predictability of trade policies in response to economic security concerns [2] - Central banks are advised to remain vigilant and respond swiftly to changes in risks affecting price stability [2] - There is a call for increased structural reform efforts to improve living standards and unlock the potential benefits of new technologies such as artificial intelligence [2]