顺丁橡胶市场承压下行

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, the butadiene rubber market experienced an overall decline due to intensified supply-demand conflicts and Mexico's tariffs on Chinese automotive products [1] - As of September 17, the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China was 11,650 yuan per ton, a decrease of 70 yuan compared to early September, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - From January to August, China's butadiene rubber production exceeded 1.02 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year [2] - New production capacities are expected to be released in the second half of the year, particularly around October, which may increase market supply pressure [2] - Jilin Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene rubber facility is scheduled to start production in mid to late October, potentially intensifying supply competition [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The tire industry, which accounts for over 70% of butadiene rubber consumption, has seen significant profit declines, with some companies reporting profit drops exceeding 50% [4] - As of the end of August, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month-on-month and 8.73 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Despite the traditional peak season, the tire industry is not performing well, with many companies maintaining regular production schedules and cautious purchasing behavior [4] Group 4: Cost Dynamics - The domestic butadiene market is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with an anticipated increase in production capacity of 930,000 tons [5] - The price decline of butadiene rubber futures has led to concerns about the pricing of styrene-butadiene rubber, further suppressing butadiene prices [5] - Butadiene accounts for 75% to 80% of the production cost of butadiene rubber, and its price decline significantly weakens cost support for butadiene rubber [5]