乙二醇：新装置投产预期叠加终端市场偏弱 MEG上方承压

Market Overview - Ethylene glycol prices have shown a downward trend, with market discussions remaining generally weak. The spot market saw transactions for the 01 contract at a premium of 77-91 CNY/ton, with a slight recovery after a decline in the afternoon [1] - In the USD market, recent cargo negotiations fell to around 508-511 USD/ton, with further weakening to 504-505 USD/ton later in the day [1] Supply and Demand - As of September 18, the overall MEG operating rate was 74.93%, with coal-based MEG at 79.38%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02% and 2.69% respectively [2] - As of September 22, the estimated MEG port inventory in East China was approximately 467,000 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [2] - Demand remains consistent with PTA demand [2] Market Outlook - The supply and demand for ethylene glycol are gradually weakening. Short-term expectations for September imports are low, with inventory levels remaining low but terminal market conditions being weak. Ethylene glycol basis remains volatile at high levels [3] - In the medium to long term, the supply-demand outlook for the fourth quarter appears weak due to increased load at the Yulong Petrochemical new facility and the restart of the satellite petrochemical unit in October, alongside seasonal demand declines. The fourth quarter is expected to enter a phase of inventory accumulation, putting pressure on ethylene glycol prices [3] - Recommended strategy includes selling call options at high points and focusing on reverse spreads [3]