Group 1: Sugar Production Forecast - StoneX forecasts that sugar production in Brazil's central-south region for the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year [1] - The cane crushing volume in the central-south region is expected to be 620.5 million tons, reflecting a growth of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Sugar Profit Margins in China - As of September 23, the profit margin for white sugar produced from imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1,656 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 467 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - For white sugar produced from imported Thai raw sugar, the profit margin is about 1,677 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 494 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] Group 3: Sugar Export and Market Sentiment - In the third week of September 2025, Brazil exported a total of 2.4079 million tons of white sugar, down from 3.8795 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average shipment of 160,500 tons, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year [1] - Domestic market sentiment is currently pessimistic, with recent price adjustments in both production areas and processed sugar [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The raw sugar market is experiencing a rebound, with main contract prices rising above 16 cents per pound, but supply pressures remain [2] - The sugar market is expected to face a surplus of 2.77 million tons starting from October 2025/26, following a shortage of 4.67 million tons in 2024/25 [3] - Short-term support for Zheng sugar is around 5,500 CNY/ton, with ongoing efforts to find a bottom in prices [3]
供应压力未完全释放 白糖反弹持续性仍需观察
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-24 06:06