政策预期强仍存 短期内预计多晶硅期货高位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows a predominantly positive trend, with polysilicon futures experiencing a significant upward movement, reflecting a complex interplay of production expectations and demand dynamics [1] Production Insights - In September, there are expectations of production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, although some second and third-tier companies are resuming operations, leading to a slight month-on-month decrease in polysilicon output [1] - Last week, the weekly polysilicon production saw a minor increase, maintaining a high overall level [1] Demand Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, silicon wafer prices have slightly increased, with some companies raising prices; however, downstream demand remains weak, leading to significant pressure on terminal transactions [1] - The overall supply-demand balance in the photovoltaic industry chain remains skewed towards supply, with a slight price increase not alleviating the weak demand situation, which is expected to suppress future polysilicon demand [1] Inventory Trends - Recent fluctuations in polysilicon inventory have been observed, with a decrease due to prior high levels of procurement; however, market transaction volumes have decreased, leading to a slowdown in inventory changes [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures anticipates that recent price increases in polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells, along with strong policy expectations, will lead to short-term high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the support of spot prices [1]