多位华尔街交易员揭秘：“欧美资本是本轮金价新高的最大多头”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3824.6 per ounce, is primarily driven by European and American capital, with significant contributions from hedge funds and investment institutions in these regions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since August 20, gold prices have increased by 1.3% in the Asia-Pacific trading session, 1.8% in Europe, and 7.7% in the U.S., indicating that the majority of the price increase is attributed to U.S. trading [1]. - From August to September, U.S. and European investors increased their holdings in gold ETFs by 37.1 tons and 20.8 tons, respectively, while Asian investors reduced their holdings by 4.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Behavior - Hedge funds and asset management firms in Wall Street have significantly increased their net long positions in COMEX gold futures options, rising from 14.1758 million ounces to 16.0489 million ounces between August 16 and September 16 [1]. - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are advocating for a portfolio strategy that includes a 20% allocation to gold, viewing it as a robust hedge against inflation [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategies - There is a notable increase in the net buying of COMEX gold options, particularly those with strike prices between $3900 and $4000 per ounce, favored by quantitative investment firms [4]. - Many large asset management firms are increasing their investments in gold ETFs as part of their core strategy to hedge against potential market risks [4]. - Wealthy family offices in the U.S. are raising their gold allocation from 15% to between 20% and 25%, further boosting demand for gold investments [4]. Group 4: Asian Market Response - In contrast to the bullish sentiment in the West, Asian capital appears to be retreating from gold investments, as indicated by a decline in the total long-short ratio of Shanghai gold futures from a yearly high of 3.58 to 2.67 [2][6]. - Factors such as the strong performance of the A-share market and the appreciation of the RMB against the USD have reduced domestic demand for gold [7]. - Domestic gold industry players are increasing hedging operations, leading to a rise in short positions in the futures market, which has dampened the momentum for gold price increases in China [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The divergence in investment behavior between U.S. and Asian capital could influence future gold price movements, with potential for prices to reach $4000 per ounce if Asian investors re-enter the market [9].