金价再创新高，159876盘中涨超1.5%！四重利好驱动，有色龙头ETF标的指数本轮拉升52%

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong bullish trend, driven by multiple favorable factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and supportive domestic policies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of over 1.5% today, currently up 1.3%, and has risen 52.82% since its low on April 8, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (23.42%) and CSI 300 (25.92%) [1]. - Key stocks within the ETF include Huayu Mining, which rose over 7%, and Hailiang Co. and Yuyuan New Materials, both up over 6% [1]. Group 2: Economic Drivers - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are pushing up non-ferrous metal prices by devaluing the dollar, making metals cheaper for global buyers, and reducing borrowing costs for companies, which boosts demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, is seen as a continuation of the supply-side reform initiated in 2015, potentially revitalizing the sector [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance is improving, with stricter regulations on rare earth mining and smelting leading to increased scarcity, while demand from green industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy is surging [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that demand for key metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel will increase sixfold by 2040, particularly driven by electric vehicle requirements [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery is expected to boost demand for cyclical goods, with recent market performance benefiting from gold price movements and the ongoing dollar interest rate cycle [6]. - CITIC Securities indicates that the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, supporting upward price trends for metals [6].