摩根大通私行全球市场策略师：中国已处于或接近价值链尖端位置｜慧眼中国

Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Asian supply chain is diversifying and becoming more refined, with China increasing its share of high-end manufactured goods in the value chain [1] - The ASEAN countries exhibit significant differences in industrial specialization and development levels, impacting their positions in the value chain [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement 3.0 negotiations have been completed, enhancing trade relations and establishing a comprehensive cooperation framework [1] - ASEAN has effectively replaced the U.S. as China's largest regional export market, with approximately 16% of China's exports directed to ASEAN in 2024 [2] - China has shifted from a trade deficit to a trade surplus with ASEAN in the electronics sector, indicating a strengthened production dominance [2] Group 3: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Trends - ASEAN welcomed a record FDI of $230 billion in 2023, with China becoming a major source of investment in the region [7] - In Indonesia, Chinese FDI reached $8.2 billion in the first half of 2025, significantly impacting local industries and job creation [8] - The growth of FDI is expected to enhance manufacturing capacity and create job opportunities, although challenges remain in managing domestic production impacts [8] Group 4: Strategies for Resilience - Companies can enhance regional supply chain resilience by diversifying and upgrading their operations in response to trade uncertainties [6] - ASEAN can benefit from increased FDI and supply chain restructuring, but must balance this with strategic measures to manage risks and promote local employment [9]