Core Viewpoint - The PTA futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract showing a price range between 4560.00 and 4630.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a gain of approximately 1.27% [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Recent stability in production facilities has led to an increase in operational load, resulting in a gradual rise in overall supply pressure [1]. - Demand side: Polyester demand remains stable, but the traditional peak season is showing lackluster performance, with general terminal order conditions being average [1]. - Inventory: Industry inventory continues to decrease, although there is an accumulation in the polyester product line [1]. Cost Factors - Cost dynamics: A significant rebound in crude oil prices has been observed, which is expected to drive short-term strength in TA valuations [1]. - PX supply: The restart of domestic and international PX maintenance facilities is leading to a gradual increase in PX supply, putting pressure on PXN [1][2]. Market Outlook - Overall market sentiment: The PTA market is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations, with a focus on the balance between cost support and ample supply [2]. - Trading strategy: Recommendations suggest a bearish trading approach, with reference pressure levels for the 2601 contract set between 4700 and 4750 CNY/ton [1].
成本支撑与供应充裕博弈 预计PTA期货窄幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-24 07:06