Market Overview - The stock market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite showing substantial gains after initial declines following President Trump's tariff announcement [2][3] - As of mid-September 2025, the S&P 500 has rallied 33%, the Dow 23%, and the Nasdaq 47%, reaching record highs [3] Valuation Metrics - The "Buffett Indicator," which measures the market-cap-to-GDP ratio, reached an all-time high of 218.12% on September 14, 2025, indicating a 157% premium over its 55-year average [9] - The Shiller P/E Ratio, a valuation tool based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade, hit 39.86, marking the third-highest level in 154 years of data [15] Historical Context - Historically, high readings of the Buffett Indicator and Shiller P/E Ratio have preceded significant market downturns, with past instances leading to declines of 20% to 89% in major indices [10][16] - The average duration of bear markets has been approximately 286 days, while bull markets tend to last significantly longer, averaging 1,011 days [21][22] Long-term Investment Perspective - Data from Crestmont Research indicates that all rolling 20-year periods since 1900 have produced positive annualized returns for the S&P 500, suggesting that market corrections can be viewed as buying opportunities for long-term investors [24][25]
The Buffett Indicator and Shiller P/E Ratio Are in Rarified Territory -- Are Things About to Get Ugly for Stocks?