ConocoPhillips Stock Continues to Fall in 2025. Is There Room for Recovery?

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips is experiencing a decline in stock price due to lower oil prices, but multiple growth catalysts are expected to drive a recovery in free cash flow and shareholder returns in the coming years [1][13]. Near-term Catalysts - The company's adjusted earnings fell from $2.7 billion in Q1 to $1.8 billion in Q2, with operating cash flow decreasing from $5.5 billion to $4.7 billion, and free cash flow dropping from $2.1 billion to $1.4 billion [4]. - ConocoPhillips anticipates higher cash distributions from its investment in APLNG and tax benefits from the "one big beautiful bill act," along with savings from reduced capital spending, which should enhance free cash flow in the latter half of the year [5]. Growth from Acquisitions - The integration of the Marathon Oil acquisition is yielding better-than-expected results, with the company now estimating over 2.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in net resources, up from an initial estimate of over 2 billion [6]. - Expected annual synergies from the acquisition have increased from $500 million to $1 billion by year-end, with an additional $1 billion in cost and margin enhancements anticipated by the end of next year [6]. Long-term Growth Drivers - ConocoPhillips is investing in long-cycle capital projects that are expected to significantly contribute to annual free cash flow, including a strategic partnership with Sempra for the Port Arthur LNG project, which is set to begin operations in 2027 [9]. - The company is also collaborating with QatarEnergy on the North Field projects, expected to start in 2027 and 2028, and investing over $7 billion in the Willow project in Alaska, which targets a 600-million-barrel resource and aims to produce 180,000 barrels per day by 2029 [10]. Future Cash Flow Expectations - The combination of these growth catalysts is projected to add an incremental $6 billion to annual free cash flow by 2029, potentially rising to $7 billion when including the Marathon Oil integration [11]. - This outlook assumes oil prices will improve to around $70 per barrel by 2026, but the company can still generate robust cash flow even if prices remain around $60 per barrel [11]. Shareholder Returns - The anticipated surge in free cash flow will enable ConocoPhillips to increase shareholder returns, with expectations of dividend growth within the top 25% of S&P 500 companies and significant share repurchases each year [12].