进口大豆到港量进入高峰 豆一可能出现下行风险

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations due to varying weather conditions in the U.S. and increased supply from South America, impacting both domestic and imported soybean prices. Group 1: Import Prices and Trends - On September 24, the CNF price for Argentine soybeans for November shipment was reported at $447 per ton, translating to a total cost of 3,624 RMB per ton upon arrival in South China, which is a decrease of 138 RMB per ton compared to the previous Monday [1] - As of September 21, the European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season was 2.86 million tons, down from 2.98 million tons the previous year [2] Group 2: Market Analysis and Forecasts - Dayue Futures indicates that while weather uncertainties in U.S. soybean-producing regions support a bottom for U.S. soybean prices, the abundant harvest in South America and favorable growing conditions in the U.S. limit the rebound potential for prices. The price range for soybean futures A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3,840 and 3,940 [3] - Ruida Futures notes that recent clear weather in the Hubei and Hunan regions has accelerated the drying process of new soybeans, with a significant amount entering the market from Northeast China. This is expected to increase supply pressure on domestic soybean prices. However, with the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, downstream stocking demand may provide temporary support for prices [4]