Lululemon Is Down 57% in 2025. Is This a Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity Before the Stock Goes Parabolic?

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has faced significant macroeconomic and competitive challenges, leading to a substantial decline in its stock price from record highs, raising questions about its future growth potential and investment attractiveness [1][2]. Company Overview - Lululemon, founded in 1998, initially gained a strong foothold in the premium yoga and athleisure market through brand loyalty initiatives like free yoga classes and an expansion of its online and physical store presence [4]. - The company experienced setbacks, including a recall of see-through yoga pants in 2013 and leadership changes that impacted its stability [5][6]. Growth Strategy - In 2019, Lululemon launched the "Power of Three" plan aimed at doubling digital and men's revenue and quadrupling international revenue over five years, which it achieved ahead of schedule despite pandemic-related store closures [6][7]. - A subsequent "Power of Three x2" plan was introduced in 2022, targeting similar growth goals, including increasing total revenue from $6.3 billion to $12.5 billion by fiscal 2026 [9]. Financial Performance - Lululemon's revenue growth has slowed, with year-over-year growth rates dropping from 30% in FY 2022 to an expected 4% to 6% in FY 2024, while comparable sales growth has also decreased significantly [11][12]. - The company's gross margin peaked at 59.2% in FY 2024 but has faced pressure due to increased markdowns and inflation-related costs [11][12]. Market Position and Challenges - Lululemon's largest market, North America, has seen a slowdown in women's apparel sales amid tough macroeconomic conditions and increased competition from brands like Nike and Under Armour [11]. - The abrupt resignation of the chief product officer in May 2025 raised concerns about the company's ability to maintain its competitive edge [11]. Stock Valuation - At a stock price of $166, Lululemon is considered undervalued at 12 times next year's earnings, but this discount reflects a significant gap between its near-term outlook and Wall Street expectations [13]. - Analysts project modest revenue growth of 5% to $11.5 billion, with earnings per share expected to increase by 4%, indicating cautious sentiment regarding the company's recovery [12][13].