Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities has raised the gross profit margin forecast for Guoshengtang (02273) based on the 2025 interim report, adjusting the earnings per share for 2025-2027 to 1.54, 1.88, and 2.30 yuan respectively, with a target price of 45.54 HKD based on a 27x P/E ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million yuan, up 41.9%, and operating cash flow of 300 million yuan, up 111%, while free cash flow reached 210 million yuan, a significant increase of 466% [2] Business Growth and Strategy - By business segment, the revenue from healthcare solutions in the first half of 2025 was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while revenue from health products was 10 million yuan. Offline institutional revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, up 11.1%, with same-store sales accounting for 97.3%, indicating growth primarily from existing stores [3] - The company added 7 new stores (4 self-built and 3 acquired) and entered 2 new cities, following a strategy of "steady growth from existing stores and orderly expansion of new stores" to mitigate acquisition risks and ensure high-quality performance growth [3] Product Development and International Expansion - The revenue from in-hospital preparations and other self-priced products saw explosive growth, increasing by 209% year-on-year. The company added 2 new in-hospital preparations, bringing the total to 14, with one product successfully certified and launched in Singapore [4] - Revenue from Singapore reached 2.143 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121%, indicating rapid growth in overseas business and the establishment of a dual-wheel business model of "service + product" [4] Digital and AI Initiatives - The company has established deep collaborations with major platforms such as Xiaohongshu, Meituan, Douyin, and Gaode Map, with new users from these platforms accounting for 7.6% of the group's offline new user count, achieving lower customer acquisition costs than the industry average [5] - As of late August, the prescription payment rate for the AI avatar reached 76.7%, with expert prescription adoption exceeding 80%. The company possesses over 20 million consultation records, 18 million cases, and 100,000 high-quality expert data, planning to advance AI avatar functionalities and commercial applications [5]
东方证券:维持固生堂(02273)“买入”评级 目标价45.54港元