智通财经网·2025-09-24 08:40Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].