机构看金市：9月24日

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation is likely to continue shifting towards gold due to various economic factors and geopolitical tensions, with expectations of further liquidity easing in the U.S. market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures indicates that Powell's remarks suggest a tight monetary policy, interpreted by the market as opening space for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [1]. - The latest PMI data points to resilience in the U.S. economy, which may alleviate concerns about economic slowdown, although profit-taking is observed near historical highs in precious metals [1]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is increasing, driven by ongoing conflicts between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, which is reigniting upward momentum in gold prices [4]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Scotiabank forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce next year under optimistic conditions, with a near-term target of $3,800 and support levels at $3,650 and $3,550 [4]. - Jefferies' Christopher Wood predicts that gold prices could touch $6,600 per ounce, based on historical bull markets and U.S. disposable income analysis, indicating a potential increase of over 76% from current levels [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The recent U.S. PPI data falling below expectations supports the notion of Federal Reserve easing, with market expectations fully pricing in rate cuts starting in September and three cuts within the year [2]. - Political uncertainties, including the collapse of the French government and the resignation of Japan's Prime Minister, are heightening risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [2][4].