Rithm Capital Stock’s Sector Comparative Analysis

Core Insights - The article provides a detailed analysis comparing Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to 17 other mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) [1][2] - The analysis focuses on RITM's recent results, dividend rates, yield percentages, and sustainability metrics [3][4] Summary of RITM's Performance - RITM's book value as of June 30, 2025, is compared to its peers, aiding in understanding its financial standing [2] - RITM declared a dividend of $0.25 per common share for Q2 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month (TTM) dividend yield of 8.92% [16][28] - The annual forward yield based on RITM's stock price as of June 20, 2025, is also 8.92%, while the yield based on its book value is 7.87% [16] Dividend Sustainability Analysis - RITM's dividend sustainability is assessed through its core earnings, with a current payout ratio of 46% for Q2 2025, indicating a strong ability to maintain dividends [23][24] - The article projects a very high probability (90%) of maintaining a dividend between $0.25 and $0.30 per share for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [30] - RITM's core earnings available for distribution (EAD) for Q1 and Q2 2025 are reported at $275.3 million and $291.1 million, respectively, with earnings per share of $0.52 and $0.54 [23] Comparative Metrics - RITM's TTM dividend yield and annual forward yield are noted to be below average compared to its peers, indicating potential for future adjustments [28] - The analysis includes a comparison of RITM's leverage ratio, which is lower than that of its peer PMT, suggesting a conservative approach to risk management [17] Future Outlook - The article anticipates a gradual increase in net interest spreads starting in late 2025, which could positively impact RITM's earnings and dividend sustainability [25] - RITM's stock price as of September 19, 2025, was $12.11, with projections indicating a price target of approximately $14.35 per share, suggesting potential for appreciation [34][37]