3 Reasons Palantir Stock Is Massively Overvalued

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies has demonstrated exceptional business performance, but its stock price reflects overly optimistic expectations for future growth and execution [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Palantir's second-quarter revenue increased by 48% year over year to approximately $1 billion, with adjusted operating income reaching $464 million, representing a 46% margin [4]. - Management has guided for third-quarter revenue of roughly $1.08 billion and lifted full-year 2025 revenue guidance to about $4.14 billion, indicating a 50% year-over-year growth [5]. - The company's market value is around $430 billion, implying a forward price-to-sales ratio near 100 based on the full-year revenue outlook [6]. Group 2: Revenue Concentration and Sensitivity - U.S. government revenue accounted for $426 million in the quarter, over 40% of total revenue, making results sensitive to external factors such as budget cycles and policy priorities [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation Comparisons - Compared to competitor Snowflake, which has a market capitalization of roughly $78 billion and a price-to-sales ratio around 19, Palantir's valuation appears excessively high [9][10]. - Datadog, another competitor, has a market value near $48 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of about 16, further illustrating Palantir's inflated valuation relative to other fast-growing software companies [11][12]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While Palantir's technology and margins present a compelling long-term story, the stock price assumes sustained growth of over 40% and continued margin expansion, leaving little room for error if growth normalizes [13].