环渤海动力煤综合价格保持上涨态势

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has shown a slight increase, driven primarily by supply-side factors, while demand-side pressures are beginning to limit price growth [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index reported at 677 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 1 RMB/ton compared to the previous period [1]. - Factors such as "overproduction checks" and safety rectifications in major production areas have led to a lack of increase in coal supply from key railway channels [1]. - The total inventory at Bohai Rim ports has remained below 23 million tons for nearly a month, with the accumulation pace not meeting expectations ahead of the National Day holiday and autumn maintenance [1]. - Non-electric procurement demand has supported rising coal prices at production sites, while port prices have also increased due to cost pressures and slow recovery of supply [1]. Demand Side Summary - Seasonal demand for coastal coal has weakened, with electricity load decreasing across provinces, leading to a rapid accumulation of inventory [2]. - Coastal power plants' inventory is 1.3 million tons higher than the same period last year, indicating a lack of strong pre-holiday replenishment demand [2]. - The impact of abundant rainfall in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir has enhanced hydropower generation, reducing the need for thermal coal during the off-peak season [2]. - The overall increase in coal prices has been primarily driven by supply-side factors, with demand-side characteristics indicating a potential stabilization in the near future [2].