美股上演“淡定牛”！标普500连续107天跌幅不超2% 创逾一年最长平稳期

Core Viewpoint - US stock investors are exhibiting remarkable calm despite trade tensions, economic slowdown, and high valuations, with the S&P 500 index reaching new historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a single-day drop of at least 2% for 107 consecutive trading days, marking the longest period of stability since July 2024 [1] - The index has risen 34% since early April, with a market capitalization increase of nearly $16 trillion [1] - The S&P 500 has set 28 new historical highs this year, despite the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are currently willing to overlook negative news, but complacency poses a risk to the stock market's upward trend [2] - Market participants are optimistic about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a cumulative 50 basis points cut by 2025 already priced in [2] - Strong consumer spending and robust corporate earnings are contributing to a positive outlook for the market [6] Group 3: Short Covering - Short covering has emerged as a significant driver of the current market stability, with a basket of heavily shorted stocks rising 14% this month, outperforming the S&P 500's 3% increase [3][4] - The relative strength index (RSI) for this basket has reached its highest overbought level since the meme stock craze in early 2021, indicating potential short-term price correction risks [4] Group 4: Volatility Indicators - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is currently well below its 10-year average and remains under the critical 20-point threshold, suggesting a lack of concern among traders [6] - Hedge funds and large speculative institutions are increasingly betting on a continuation of low volatility, with net short positions in the VIX reaching their highest level since August 2022 [6] - Despite signs indicating a potential market pause, the S&P 500 still has significant room for upward movement, as market enthusiasm has not reached extreme levels [6]