实探中秋节前白酒动销情况：中高端销售稳健 去库存仍是主旋律

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) phenomenon, with significant differentiation in sales performance across different price segments as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Mid to high-end liquor sales remain stable, supported by a loyal customer base, while low-end liquor sales are struggling [2] - Promotions in supermarkets have attracted more customers, contributing to better sales of mid to high-end liquor [3] - Overall, the white liquor market is showing a mild recovery month-on-month, but year-on-year sales are still expected to decline due to reduced demand for business gifts and more rational consumer behavior [3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry is still in a destocking phase, with significant inventory pressure on second and third-tier liquor companies [4] - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the white liquor industry decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue saw a slight increase of 0.19% [4] - Over 58% of distributors reported an increase in inventory, with many facing price inversion issues, leading to an average inventory turnover period of 900 days [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue facing deep adjustments in the second half of 2025, with a "K" shaped differentiation in performance among companies [5] - Leading companies are likely to maintain positive growth in gift and banquet markets due to brand strength, while most companies will struggle with high inventory and weak consumer demand [5]