Not just jobs, AI is coming for existing IT deals in India

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming India's $283 billion IT industry, influencing both new deals and existing contracts [1] - Companies are increasingly revisiting contracts to seek greater AI-driven savings, with expectations for renegotiations to rise [2][3] Group 1: Impact on Contracts and Pricing - Cognizant's CFO indicated that historically, about 15-20% of contracts are renegotiated annually, with similar discounts typically passed to customers; this is expected to increase to 25% in the AI context, with productivity savings expectations rising to 20-25% [2] - Infosys' CFO noted that while generative AI may reduce project costs, the savings will likely be reinvested into new initiatives, indicating a shift in how savings are utilized [4] - Mid-sized firms like Hexaware Technologies are also experiencing cost compression in IT operations and software development due to AI, affecting both new and renewed deals [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Projections - Analysts predict that AI will limit growth in the IT services market to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5%-3% from 2024 to 2029, driven by client hesitance to invest amid rapid AI advancements [12] - AI-led productivity gains are expected to impact existing IT services revenues by approximately 20% over FY25-30, while new growth opportunities may emerge later [12] Group 3: Workforce Implications - Major IT firms are already laying off employees due to productivity improvements driven by AI, with TCS announcing a reduction of 2% of its workforce, equating to 12,200 employees [13][14] - HCL Technologies has also indicated workforce reductions, particularly among employees not deployable on new projects, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [13][15] Group 4: Financial Performance - Cognizant, Infosys, and TCS reported fiscal-year revenues of $19.74 billion, $19.28 billion, and $30.18 billion respectively, with growth rates between 2% and 3.85% [7] - Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, share prices of TCS and Infosys have decreased by 10.5% and 8.5%, while shares of Cognizant and HCL Technologies have increased by 8.8% and 28.7% respectively [8]