每经热评｜“公布订单总数达1亿” 车企“营销通胀”何时休？

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing a significant issue of "order inflation," where companies are inflating order numbers for marketing purposes, leading to a disconnect between reported orders and actual sales [1][3]. Group 1: Order Inflation Phenomenon - The practice of announcing high order numbers has become standard in the automotive industry, with reports indicating that small order numbers in China's passenger car market have exceeded 500 million this year, while actual wholesale and retail sales are significantly lower at approximately 17.93 million and 14.70 million respectively [1][2]. - The conversion rate for small or blind orders is relatively low, with some companies reporting only a 10% conversion rate [1][2]. Group 2: Motivations Behind Order Inflation - The first driving logic is the combination of marketing pressure and herd mentality, where consumers prefer "hot models" due to concerns about maintenance and resale value, prompting companies to create a false sense of demand [2]. - The second driving logic involves the need for companies to present impressive order numbers to investors and internal management, enhancing confidence and performance evaluations [2]. - The third driving logic is that companies feel compelled to follow the trend of order inflation to avoid market pressure, leading to a cycle where honest companies must invest more in marketing to compete [2]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences of Order Inflation - The practice of inflating orders can mislead consumer decisions, potentially harming their interests by pushing them towards unsuitable products [3]. - Inflated order data can disrupt production planning, leading to inventory issues and increased operational costs for companies [3]. - The integrity of honest companies is compromised, creating a "bad money drives out good" scenario that undermines fair competition [3]. - The overall credibility of the industry is at risk, as consumers may lose trust in reported data, affecting the industry's foundation [3]. Group 4: Regulatory and Industry Response - Regulatory bodies have begun to address the issue, with a three-month campaign initiated to rectify marketing irregularities in the automotive sector, focusing on illegal profit-making and false advertising [3][4]. - Some companies are proactively moving away from reporting inflated order numbers, instead focusing on metrics like "lock-in rates" and "delivery targets" that better reflect actual market demand [4]. - Industry leaders are advocating for a return to product-centric competition rather than numerical games, emphasizing the importance of addressing real consumer needs and enhancing product quality [4][5].