Carnival Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is expected to report third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 29, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at $1.31, reflecting a 3.2% increase from the previous year [1][8]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for fiscal third-quarter revenues is $8.1 billion, indicating a 2% growth year-over-year [5]. - CCL has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 169.9% [5][10]. Earnings Estimates - The current EPS estimate for Q3 is $1.31, with a 60-day unchanged consensus [2]. - The expected passenger ticket revenues are projected to rise 0.2% year-over-year to $5.25 billion, while onboard and other revenues are anticipated to increase by 2.3% to $2.71 billion [12]. Market Dynamics - European demand, premium pricing, and the launch of Celebration Key are expected to positively influence Q3 results [10][13]. - The company has seen strong booking momentum and robust onboard spending, contributing to revenue growth [11]. Cost Considerations - Total operating expenses are expected to rise by 1.5% year-over-year to $5.8 billion, driven by increased cruise costs excluding fuel [15]. - Management has indicated a 7% year-over-year increase in cruise costs, influenced by start-up expenses for Celebration Key and higher advertising costs [15]. Stock Performance - CCL shares have increased by 20.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry growth of 11.2% [16]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 13.64X, below the industry average of 18.77X, indicating a potential investment opportunity [19]. Strategic Initiatives - Carnival's strong demand trends support raised 2025 yield guidance, with record customer deposits and high pricing [21]. - The launch of Celebration Key and fleet enhancements are expected to drive incremental revenue and improve guest experiences [22]. Investment Outlook - Carnival is well-positioned for the upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings, supported by resilient demand and sustained strength in pricing and onboard revenue [23]. - The company's discounted valuation relative to peers and leadership in the global cruise industry present a compelling opportunity for long-term investors [25].