【环球财经】新西兰经济难现强劲反弹 联储新任主席面临增长停滞挑战

Core Viewpoint - New Zealand's economy remains weak despite aggressive interest rate cuts, with challenges ahead for the newly appointed Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman [1][2] Economic Performance - New Zealand's GDP contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, three times the economists' forecast, and by 0.6% year-on-year, against an expectation of 0% [1][2] - Per capita economic growth shrank by 1.1% in the same quarter, indicating a significant downturn [2] Monetary Policy - Economists are calling for a further 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October meeting, as the current monetary policy has not effectively stimulated the economy [2][3] - The official cash rate has been reduced by a total of 250 basis points since mid-2024, but improvements in employment and economic activity have been limited [1][2] Housing and Consumer Demand - Despite unprecedented rate cuts, there has been no significant increase in housing prices, leading to a lack of wealth effect and limited consumer spending [2] - Rising unemployment and labor outflow to Australia for better opportunities are exacerbating the economic situation [2] External Factors - Global uncertainties, particularly from U.S. trade policies, have negatively impacted New Zealand's exports, with a 15% tariff on goods such as wine and meat [2] - The economic outlook remains challenging, with expectations of only modest improvements in the coming year [2] Future Projections - Financial institutions expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to implement deeper rate cuts, with predictions of the official cash rate dropping to 2.25% by the end of the year [3] - The economic environment is anticipated to shift towards a highly stimulative stance [3]