Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-24 15:01Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has been one of the best-performing segments in the A-share market since the "9.24" rally began in 2024, with the China Securities Banking Index showing a cumulative increase of approximately 24% over the past year [2][3]. Market Performance - As of September 24, 2024, the total A-share market capitalization of 42 listed banks reached approximately 10.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.37 trillion yuan from 8.23 trillion yuan a year ago [4]. - The total market capitalization for these banks is about 13.9 trillion yuan, up over 3 trillion yuan from 10.83 trillion yuan a year ago [4]. - The banking sector experienced a significant rally, with the index reaching a high of 8570.76 points, representing a more than 43% increase since last year [2]. Individual Bank Performance - All 42 A-share listed banks reported positive stock price changes over the past year, with the highest increase nearing 59% and the lowest at around 8% [3]. - Notable performers include Qingdao Bank (58.87%), Xiamen Bank (50%), and Agricultural Bank of China (48.6%) [3]. - The median increase for state-owned banks was approximately 29%, with Agricultural Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Postal Savings Bank leading the gains [3]. Market Capitalization Changes - The top five banks by A-share market capitalization as of the latest close are Agricultural Bank (2.1 trillion yuan), Industrial and Commercial Bank (2.01 trillion yuan), China Bank (1.26 trillion yuan), China Merchants Bank (852.39 billion yuan), and Postal Savings Bank (607.45 billion yuan) [4]. - The Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank saw significant increases in A-share market capitalization, with growth of approximately 565.1 billion yuan and 396.3 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]. Recent Trends and Adjustments - Since July, the banking sector has entered a phase of adjustment, with the China Securities Banking Index declining nearly 13% from its peak [6]. - Over half of the banks have experienced a decline of more than 10% since July 10, with some banks like Everbright Bank and Beijing Bank seeing declines exceeding 20% [6]. - The market sentiment has shifted, leading to increased discussions about whether bank stocks have risen too much and if the rally is over [7]. Valuation Metrics - The median dividend yield for bank stocks is around 4.5%, which has decreased by over 1 percentage point from a year ago but remains competitive compared to other asset yields [7]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for the 42 listed banks is approximately 0.58, showing a slight increase from 0.5 a year ago, indicating that the market is still grappling with the issue of banks trading below book value [7].