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BABA's Free Cash Flow Turns Negative: Can Heavy Spending Pay Off?
ZACKS·2025-09-24 15:40

Core Insights - Alibaba's first-quarter fiscal 2026 free cash flow turned negative at RMB 18.8 billion, a reversal from a positive RMB 17.4 billion inflow a year ago, primarily due to increased capital expenditures of RMB 38.7 billion focused on AI and cloud infrastructure [1][9] - Despite short-term cash strain, Alibaba's initiatives are yielding results, with Alibaba Cloud growing in the mid-20s percent year over year and Taobao Instant Commerce surpassing 80 million weekly average daily orders, boosting monthly active users by 25% [2][9] - The company has committed RMB 380 billion ($52 billion) over the next three years for AI infrastructure, new data centers, and proprietary inference chips, which could enhance monetization and long-term profitability [3] Financial Performance - Alibaba's share price has surged 92.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which grew by 13.5% and 9.2% respectively [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is projected at $8.09 per share, reflecting a 10.2% year-over-year decline [13] Valuation Metrics - Alibaba's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 17.55X, compared to the industry's 25.03X, indicating a relatively lower valuation [10]