HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami: Whenever mortgage rates head near 6%, housing data improves

Group 1: Housing Market Overview - New home sales in August increased by over 20% month-over-month, indicating strong demand and a potential turning point for the housing market [1] - Mortgage rates below 6.64% and down to 6% have historically led to improved housing data, with recent purchase application data showing the best performance in eight weeks [2] - The stability of mortgage rates around 6% is crucial for the growth of housing permits and starts, as fluctuations above 7% have historically dampened demand [3][4] Group 2: Builder Dynamics - Publicly traded builders are managing to maintain gross margins despite challenges, while smaller builders face greater risks due to recent job losses in residential construction [7] - Builders are currently focused on selling completed units, which are at historically low levels, prompting a pullback in construction activity [9][10] - The efficiency of builders in selling products contrasts with the existing home sales market, which involves more complex negotiations between sellers and buyers [9] Group 3: Labor Market Implications - The recent surge in single-family home sales occurs amidst a backdrop of job losses in manufacturing and residential construction, raising concerns about the labor market [11][12] - The ability to grow housing permits is essential for stabilizing the labor market related to single-family homes, emphasizing the importance of duration in housing data [12][13] - The current low mortgage rates are attributed to a softer labor market, highlighting the interconnectedness of these economic factors [13]