港股吸“金” 港元吸“睛”

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is experiencing a rare strengthening against the US dollar, marking the strongest 30-day appreciation since 2003, driven by changes in the currency market environment and strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market, underpinned by the resilience of the Chinese economy [2][3][6]. Currency Market Dynamics - The HKD appreciated sharply from the "weak side convertibility guarantee" level of 7.85 in mid-August to around 7.77, reflecting a 1% increase over the past 30 days, the strongest rise since 2003 [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has surged, with the overnight HKD borrowing rate rising from below 0.2% in mid-August to 4.45% by September 24 [3][4]. - The rapid fluctuations in the HKD's value since May, including a swift transition from the "strong side" to the "weak side" of the convertibility guarantee, highlight the volatility in the currency market [3][4]. Stock Market Influence - The strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index reaching a nearly four-year high of over 27,000 points, has significantly contributed to the demand for HKD [4][5]. - Year-to-date, net inflows from southbound trading have reached 110.97 billion HKD, a 37% increase compared to the entire previous year, indicating robust foreign investment in the Hong Kong stock market [5]. Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has actively intervened to stabilize the HKD by withdrawing HKD liquidity, reducing the currency's balance from nearly 175 billion HKD in June to about 54 billion HKD [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased demand for HKD near quarter-end, have added upward pressure on the currency's value [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has contributed to a narrowing interest rate differential between the HKD and USD, further supporting the HKD's appreciation [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the HKD may touch the "strong side convertibility guarantee" level of 7.75 in the short term, closely linked to the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [7]. - The ongoing influx of both domestic and foreign capital into the stock market is expected to remain a core factor influencing the HKD's exchange rate against the USD in the medium to long term [7].