【环时深度】“新右翼”渐起，拉美政治“拉锯战”更频繁

Core Viewpoint - Latin America is entering a critical election cycle from 2025 to 2026, with several countries including Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Brazil set to elect new presidents, while Argentina will hold parliamentary elections in October 2023. This series of elections will significantly influence the region's political and economic direction [1]. Group 1: Rise of the New Right - The emergence of the "New Right" in Latin America is characterized by a complex blend of restoring order and anti-establishment sentiments, marking a shift from the leftist governance that has dominated for the past two decades [2][3]. - The "New Right" wave began with the election of Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2018, followed by Bukele in El Salvador in 2019, and continued with the elections of Milei and Noboa in Argentina and Ecuador in 2023, respectively [2][3]. - Scholars note that the concept of the "New Right" was first introduced in 1970 by Argentine scholar José Luis Romero, emphasizing the need to understand political movements within their historical and contextual frameworks [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Challenges - The rise of the "New Right" is seen as a response to the decline of the left's "golden age," influenced by factors such as the end of the commodity price boom and political corruption scandals [5]. - The "New Right" has capitalized on public concerns regarding crime and safety, positioning itself as the only viable option willing to take extreme measures to address these issues [5]. - The political landscape is increasingly polarized, with traditional leftist parties struggling to maintain voter enthusiasm, as evidenced by the upcoming elections in Chile where the extreme right candidate Kast is gaining traction [8][9]. Group 3: Cultural and Social Dimensions - The "New Right" distinguishes itself from traditional right-wing politics by focusing on cultural issues, attacking "political correctness," and mobilizing support from affluent groups and conservative-minded citizens [4][6]. - The movement has gained significant traction among younger voters, utilizing social media to engage and provoke, which has allowed it to challenge the dominance of leftist narratives [7]. - The global rise of right-wing politics has also influenced the "New Right" in Latin America, with connections to conservative movements in the U.S. and Europe, particularly through platforms like the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming election cycle is expected to intensify the struggle between left and right, with predictions that many leftist governments may be replaced by right-wing candidates [9][10]. - Despite the rise of the "New Right," there are indications that leftist movements still possess significant mobilization capabilities and may regain influence if they can effectively address public concerns [10].