纸箱需求暴跌，美国经济的“不祥之兆”？

Core Viewpoint - The rapid closure of corrugated packaging factories in the U.S. signals a concerning trend for the economy, as declining demand for cardboard boxes may indicate a broader retail demand adjustment across various industries [1][2]. Industry Summary - U.S. cardboard manufacturers have announced plans to shut down approximately 9% of their production capacity this year, with major companies like International Paper and Smurfit Kappa leading the closures [2]. - The cardboard shipping volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2016, with per capita cardboard shipments down over 20% from their peak in 1999 [2]. - The industry is experiencing unprecedented capacity reductions, with seven factories reported to have announced closures this year, resulting in about 2,500 job losses [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The cardboard industry is viewed as a barometer for the overall economy, as its demand is closely tied to consumer spending across various sectors [3][4]. - A decline in cardboard demand may suggest a slowdown in economic activity, with experts referring to this phenomenon as "cardboard recession" [3][4]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in non-essential consumer spending in the U.S., particularly in sectors affected by tariffs, which has contributed to the overall economic slowdown [4][5]. Consumer Confidence - The U.S. consumer confidence index has reached a new low since May, reflecting concerns over the labor market and inflation, which may further suppress economic growth [5][6]. - FedEx and UPS have refrained from providing full-year performance guidance due to uncertainty, with UPS noting that consumer sentiment has negatively impacted the small package market [6]. - The decline in cardboard demand is indicative of reduced order volumes and overall economic weakness, suggesting that continued production cuts could lead to worsening indicators like GDP and unemployment rates [5][6].