降关税稳定货币，大订单带来外汇，阿根廷农民为“零税出口”叫好

Core Viewpoint - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export withholding taxes on agricultural products such as grains, beef, and poultry to alleviate foreign exchange pressure and stimulate exports, a move that is expected to last until October 31 or until export declarations reach $7 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The removal of withholding taxes is expected to significantly reduce the tax burden on key agricultural exports, with current export duties on soybean meal and oil at 24.5%, soybeans at 26%, and corn and wheat at 9.5% [2]. - Analysts estimate that this measure could lead to a $1.4 billion reduction in government tax revenue, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP [2]. - The policy is anticipated to lower costs by $123.7 per ton for soybeans and $29.2 per ton for corn, potentially boosting export activity [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, soybean and corn prices experienced declines, with Chicago soybean meal futures dropping by 1.9% and soybean oil futures by 2.5% [6]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts record grain exports of 105.1 million tons for the 2025/26 season, driven by a strong harvest [5]. Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - China has increased its purchases of Argentine soybeans following the tax removal, with reports indicating at least 10 shipments ordered, each approximately 65,000 tons [7]. - This shift in trade dynamics may negatively impact U.S. soybean farmers, who are facing competition from South American producers amid stalled trade negotiations with China [7]. - The Argentine government is seen to be pragmatically enhancing trade relations with China, which could lead to deeper economic cooperation in agricultural exports [8].