【黄金期货收评】贵金属短期调整无碍长期看多格局 沪金涨1.99%

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a strong performance in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 860.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.03% with a trading volume of 285,621 lots and an open interest of 274,765 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 853.15 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.85 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate remains slightly restrictive, allowing the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments [1]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts, with an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The preliminary September PMI for the U.S. services sector was reported at 53.9, slightly below expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was at 52, also below prior values [1]. - The latest PMI data suggests that the U.S. economy shows some resilience, which may alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts interpret Powell's remarks as potentially opening the door for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [3]. - Despite the risks of stagflation and geopolitical conflicts, the long-term value of precious metals remains strong, with a continued inclination towards gold in global asset allocation [3].