化工大扩产，产能如何被消化？

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with an average capacity growth rate exceeding 10% per year, leading to increased competition and a decline in operating rates and profitability, despite a significant growth in apparent consumption of major petrochemical products during this phase [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Expansion and Competition - The average capacity growth rate for various petrochemical products is projected to exceed 10% annually from 2019 to 2025, resulting in intensified competition within the industry [1][2]. - The rapid expansion of capacity has led to challenges such as reduced operating rates and profitability [1][2]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - Export amounts are expected to increase significantly, with a notable rise in physical volumes despite stable growth in export value; various sectors are experiencing a price decline of 2% to 7% annually from 2023 to 2025 [3]. - The self-sufficiency rate for key petrochemical products has improved significantly, with ethylene and PX self-sufficiency rates increasing by 19% and 18%, respectively, which corresponds to the absorption of 949,000 and 855,000 tons of capacity [4]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Structural Highlights - The development of emerging industries and consumption markets, such as new energy vehicles and wind power, is driving demand for chemical products like EVA, POE, epoxy resin, and PVDF [5]. - The overall domestic demand is moderate, but structural highlights are emerging, with traditional plastics benefiting from the rise of national subsidies, express delivery, and takeaway consumption [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on sectors driven by policy, including refining, ethylene, PX, methanol, and refining by-products, as well as sectors improving under market mechanisms, such as polyester filament, PTA, and caprolactam [6]. - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Baofeng Energy, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [6].