钴：刚果金配额政策落地，中长期逻辑夯实

Core Viewpoint - The recent cobalt export policy from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extends the export suspension until October 15, 2025, and introduces a quota system starting October 16, 2025, which will significantly impact the cobalt market dynamics [2][3][6]. Group 1: Export Control and Quota System - Temporary export suspension extended until October 15, 2025 [3][4]. - Quota system to be implemented starting October 16, 2025, with specific conditions and distribution methods to be outlined in a forthcoming resolution [3][4]. - Maximum export authorization for the period from October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allowances specified [3][4]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Dynamics - The total export quota for 2026 is capped at 96,600 tons, consisting of 87,000 tons as "basic quota" and 9,600 tons as "strategic quota" [3][4]. - The basic quota allows for a monthly allocation of 7,250 tons, with distribution based on historical export volumes, excluding certain companies [3][4]. - Strategic quotas are designated for projects of national importance, with ARECOMS having full discretion over their allocation [4][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The quota volume represents a 56% reduction compared to last year's exports of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6][7]. - Current industry chain inventory is approximately four months, suggesting that the end of the suspension and shipping delays could lead to significant inventory depletion [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding future quota allocations and the limited capacity for increased supply from Indonesia highlights the challenges in meeting demand [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies less affected by DRC policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which possess quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia [6][7]. - Long-term advantages are expected for companies with substantial resource reserves and production capacity, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [6][7].