不锈钢：盘面震荡小幅走强 关注下游节前备库情况

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with slight fluctuations in production and inventory levels [1][2][3] Pricing - As of September 24, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled steel is 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price in Foshan is 13,200 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic benchmark prices expected to rise by $0.2-$0.3 in September [1][3] Raw Materials - Nickel iron prices are stable, with procurement prices around 950 yuan/nickel (including tax) [1][3] - Chromium ore costs are supported by reduced supply in August, leading to increased chromium iron prices [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2795 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 68,700 tons (2.14%) but a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% [1] - The forecast for September crude steel output is 3.4021 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 3.57% [1] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing slowly, with a total of 472,000 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan as of September 19, down by 6,000 tons week-on-week [2] - As of September 24, stainless steel futures inventory is 88,233 tons, a decrease of 7,032 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is showing slight strength, but demand for pre-holiday inventory is not significant, leading to subdued transaction volumes [3] - Seasonal and policy factors are expected to improve demand expectations, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [3]