Market Overview - As of September 25, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised potential supply risks, coupled with a decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for November rose by $1.58 to $64.99 per barrel, a 2.49% increase; ICE Brent futures for November increased by $1.68 to $69.31 per barrel, also a 2.48% rise [1] Important Information - Global diesel supply tightness has surged due to Ukraine's 23 drone attacks on Russian refineries since August, the approaching maintenance season in the Northern Hemisphere, and potential export controls from Russia. Russian refining output has dropped to an average of less than 5 million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022, and over 7% below seasonal averages. The market is seeing a record high in net long positions in ICE European diesel, with significant bullish options trading concentrated in the $700-750 per ton range for October [2] - In August, crude oil imports from Indonesia to China surged to 2.7 million tons, approximately 630,000 barrels per day, tripling from July and exceeding Indonesia's last year's average production of 580,000 barrels per day. This indicates a new route for Iranian shipments through third-party resales [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister stated that Hungary will not cease purchasing Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, despite pressure from Trump, citing the country's landlocked status and lack of port refining and LNG facilities [2] Production and Export Dynamics - Chevron's production in its joint venture projects in Venezuela is limited to about 50% for export due to new U.S. regulations. The joint venture must pay taxes and royalties in crude oil, which is received by the state-owned PDVSA for domestic refining or re-export [3] - Indian refineries are increasing export capacity due to new production and an increase in the gasoline-ethanol blending ratio from 12% in 2023 to 20% this year. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that by 2025, India's crude processing capacity will rise to approximately 5.51 million barrels per day, with gasoline exports reaching about 400,000 barrels per day and diesel exports increasing to 610,000-630,000 barrels per day [3] Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The recent rise in oil prices is primarily driven by heightened concerns over supply tightening, particularly due to geopolitical risks. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities have intensified worries about disruptions in Russian crude and product supplies, as evidenced by the significant strengthening of diesel crack spreads and increased trader bets on price rises [4] - The unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, along with lower gasoline and distillate stocks, continues to support demand in the market. The current market focus has shifted from long-term macro demand concerns to immediate geopolitical risks, providing short-term support for oil prices [4] Trading Recommendations - The recommendation is to focus on single-sided swing trading, with WTI expected to trade in the range of $60 to $66, Brent between $64 and $69, and SC between 471 and 502 [5]
原油：地缘风险溢价抬升叠加EIA库存去化 油价短期支撑有所增强
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-25 02:01