Market Overview - The recent strong rebound in A-shares is driven by policy support and a return of market confidence, rather than substantial improvements in the fundamentals [1][3] - On September 24, A-shares saw significant gains, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.28%, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high, and the STAR 50 Index increasing by 3.49% [1][2] - The total trading volume on September 24 reached 2.33 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity and investor sentiment [1][2] Investment Trends - UBS noted a trend of residents reallocating funds from stable assets like bonds and money market funds to the stock market, indicating a shift in wealth distribution [1][4] - The increase in margin trading balances and new margin accounts suggests that leveraged funds are playing a crucial role in the current market rally [2][4][5] Policy Expectations - There is anticipation for new growth policies, with potential adjustments in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [6][7] - Specific policy directions may include early use of local government debt quotas for infrastructure spending, establishment of new policy financial tools, and expansion of consumer subsidies [7] Market Risks - Despite the positive market indicators, there are structural concerns as the current rally is primarily driven by valuation expansion rather than widespread corporate profit improvements [3][4] - The sustainability of the bull market is questioned, as long-term growth requires fundamental economic improvements and not just confidence and liquidity [3][6]
A股强势反弹背后 估值驱动还是基本面回暖？
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-09-25 02:06