Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with increasing market speculation regarding this potential action [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - A former BOJ committee member indicated that the decision to raise rates in October will largely depend on the strength of upcoming economic data, which may show delayed effects from tariffs [1] - Market expectations for a rate hike on October 30 are growing due to stable inflation levels and resilient economic performance, despite global trade impacts from U.S. policies [1] - Following indications from insiders that BOJ officials believe another rate hike may occur in 2025, the money market has intensified bets on a rate increase by year-end [1] Group 2: Committee Voting Dynamics - The BOJ's recent policy vote surprised analysts, as it marked the first instance during Governor Ueda's tenure where two members opposed maintaining the current rate [1] - The dissenting members based their votes on the severity of inflation, which has remained at or above the BOJ's target for three consecutive years [2] - The recent voting behavior may signal a unified message from the committee regarding a potential policy shift, as the rationale for raising rates could have been applied earlier [2] Group 3: Political Influences - The outcome of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party leadership election on October 4 is a significant uncertainty factor for the BOJ's policy direction [5] - If popular candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, it may lead to a delay in rate hikes, as she is viewed as a supporter of monetary easing, although her stance has softened compared to previous statements [5] - The expectation is that the BOJ's policy rate could increase by 100 basis points over the next two and a half years, potentially reaching around 1.5%, slightly above the market's current peak rate expectation of 1.25% [5]
前日本央行官员：最早或于下月再次加息 本周期或再将利率上调1%
智通财经网·2025-09-25 03:13