邢自强：“天才法案”的核心目的是维持美元的主导地位

Core Insights - The "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" to explore development opportunities amidst changing global dynamics [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, highlighted that the U.S. "Genius Act" reflects America's intention to maintain the dominance of the dollar in the digital payment infrastructure [3] - Xing Ziqiang noted that the proposed stablecoin legislation could strengthen the dollar's international status in the short term, but it may also expose the global payment system's over-reliance on the dollar, prompting countries like China to explore multi-currency payment systems [3] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points by mid-next year, bringing rates down to around 3% [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Xing Ziqiang expressed a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar, suggesting that as U.S. real interest rates decline, the interest rate differential with other major economies may narrow, potentially leading to reduced demand for the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The anticipated decline in real interest rates could exacerbate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [4]