李迅雷：机会风险都聚焦科技股，黄金稀土还能涨

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment is characterized by "high volatility and low growth," with structural opportunities arising from the AI revolution, which is expected to transform business models across various sectors, similar to the internet boom [2]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance, but there is significant confusion as most stocks lack opportunities, with only a small percentage experiencing substantial gains [2]. - The "K-shaped" recovery indicates that a minority of companies are thriving while the majority are struggling, with only 12.5% of companies contributing to the S&P 500's performance since 2010 [2]. - Historically, 80% of U.S. companies have either disappeared, been delisted, or merged, highlighting a continuous cycle of selection and replacement among the remaining 20% [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Current asset allocation should focus on growth, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have performed well due to advancements in technology [3]. - The U.S. market still shows signs of a bubble, raising concerns about when it might burst, despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The EU's economic recovery is linked to increased military spending, but this may not be sustainable in the long term, as it relies on debt to finance current growth [3]. Group 3: A-Share Market - The valuation of the CSI 300 index is around 14 times earnings, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 29 times and the Nasdaq's 41 times, indicating a relative valuation advantage for A-shares [4]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 has decreased from 3% to 2.6%, but remains attractive [4]. - A-share corporate earnings growth has been weak, with a 2.5% increase in the first half of the year, which is below the GDP growth rate of 5.3%, suggesting that high-quality development is still needed [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The AI era may lead to a market reshuffle similar to the internet bubble burst in 2000, paving the way for new industry leaders [6]. - Long-term optimism exists for technology and AI sectors, as well as for innovative pharmaceuticals related to aging populations and industries facing import substitution challenges [6]. - Recommended asset allocation includes 50% in stocks, 30% in government bonds, and 20% in gold, with gold prices having increased by 200% from $1,200 to $3,600 per ounce over the past decade [6]. Group 5: Commodities - In a declining interest rate environment, commodities related to AI, new energy, and electric vehicles, such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, are expected to continue rising [7].