邢自强：全面社保改革有望激活10万亿美元内需市场，是人民币国际化基石

Core Insights - The "Phoenix Bay Area Finance Forum 2025" held in Guangzhou focused on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathered global elites from politics, business, and academia to explore development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1] Group 1: Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Zhiqiang, emphasized that social security reform can promote a unified national market and boost consumption, which is essential to break the current low-price cycle and enhance corporate profitability [3] - Xing proposed that a more robust social security network would alleviate concerns for vulnerable groups, thereby reducing the overall precautionary savings rate and unlocking consumption potential [3] - He projected that comprehensive social security reform could increase the consumption share of GDP from under 40% to approximately 45% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, creating a domestic consumption market worth around $10 trillion [3] Group 2: Funding Strategies - Xing identified two key pathways to secure funding for social security improvements: increasing the dividend ratio of state-owned enterprises and adjusting the fiscal expenditure structure to focus more on people's livelihoods rather than infrastructure [3] - He asserted that the government has the capacity to finance these initiatives, describing it as the most cost-effective form of economic investment [3] Group 3: Currency Internationalization - The core of RMB internationalization lies in the combination of "principle" and "technique," requiring substantial structural reforms to enhance the return on RMB assets and establish a solid foundation for the application of financial infrastructures like stablecoins [4]