Group 1 - The total value of U.S. stocks has reached 363% of GDP, surpassing the 212% mark during the dotcom bubble, indicating a potential warning of an unsustainable market [1] - The S&P 500 index recently closed at a record 6,501, resulting in a trailing P/E ratio of 30x, a level seen only during rare market moments, including the tech frenzy from 1999 to 2002 [2] - Earnings growth has not kept pace with inflation, with investors now receiving $3 of earnings for every $100 invested, down from $5 in 2022, suggesting that stock price increases are driven more by rising multiples than by corporate profit growth [2] Group 2 - Historically, the value of U.S. equities averaged 72% of GDP from Q3 1955 to Q3 1985, but recent gains have primarily come from a rising profit share of GDP and higher P/E multiples rather than economic growth [3] - The concept of "financialization" of the U.S. economy since the 1980s has been highlighted, indicating a detachment of financial performance from fundamentals [4] - Cultural references, such as "The Big Short" and Oliver Stone's "Wall Street," illustrate the dynamics of greed and financial performance in the context of the 1980s [4]
Top analyst says the U.S. bull market dates all the way back to the 1980s, and stocks just hit a potentially unsustainable 363% of GDP
Yahoo Financeยท2025-09-23 16:46