Tryg A/S - Q3 2025 pre-silent newsletter

Core Viewpoint - Tryg is preparing for its Q3 2025 results release on 10 October, with pre-close analyst calls starting on 25 September to discuss key factors influencing recent financial performance [1] Insurance Revenue Growth - Tryg's insurance revenue is well-distributed across Scandinavia, with approximately 50% from Denmark, 30% from Sweden, and 20% from Norway. In Q3 2024, insurance revenue reached DKK 9,786 million [2] Revenue Development - The group reported a local currency revenue growth of 4.0% in Q2 2025. Q3 2024 included a positive one-off of approximately DKK 50 million in insurance revenue. The expected average conversion rates are SEK 100 to DKK 67.1 and NOK 100 to DKK 63.3 [3] Claims Environment - Tryg's underlying claims ratio was 67.3% in Q3 2024, with expectations for stable to slightly improving performance towards 2027. The underlying claims ratio improved by 30 basis points in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, with private claims ratios improving by 10 and 20 basis points respectively [4] Weather and Large Claims - Normalized weather claims for Q3 are expected to be DKK 160 million, which is 20% of the annual guidance of DKK 800 million. The distribution of weather claims is 40% in Q1, 10% in Q2, 20% in Q3, and 30% in Q4 [5] Interest Rates Development - The expected discount rate for Q3 is approximately 2.4%, consistent with Q2 2025 [6] Run-off Expectations - Tryg anticipates a long-term run-off expectation of around 2% towards 2027 [7] Investment Activities - Tryg's investment activities are divided into a match portfolio of approximately DKK 45 billion and a free portfolio of approximately DKK 15 billion. The free portfolio has been derisked and mainly consists of Scandinavian covered bonds and government bonds [8] Return on Investment - The match portfolio's return is expected to yield DKK 65 million per quarter, while 'Other financial income and expenses' is guided at DKK -90 million per quarter [9] Other Income and Costs - Other income and costs are guided between DKK -350 million and DKK -370 million quarterly, primarily due to amortization of intangibles from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition, with an additional FX-related impact of approximately DKK 15 million [11] Number of Shares - As of the end of Q2 2025, Tryg reported 603,076 outstanding shares, with no material changes expected [12] Outlook Statement - Tryg aims for its highest ever insurance service result of DKK 8.0-8.4 billion by 2027, following an adjusted insurance service result of around DKK 7.2 billion in 2024 [13]