集邦咨询：受QLC产品热度的外溢效应驱动 预计NAND Flash第四季价格将上涨5-10%

Core Insights - The demand in the consumer market was overdrawn in the first half of the year, leading to a weaker-than-expected peak season in the second half, with forecasts for Q4 2025 indicating price stabilization. However, HDD supply shortages and long lead times have shifted CSPs' storage demand towards QLC Enterprise SSDs, resulting in a surge of urgent orders and significant market volatility [1] - SanDisk announced a 10% price increase, while Micron paused pricing due to capacity considerations, shifting the supply-side sentiment from conservative to positive. Consequently, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to rise across all product categories in Q4, with an average increase of 5-10% [1][2] Supply Side Analysis - NAND Flash supply has improved due to production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of the year, alleviating price pressures. Most manufacturers are focusing capital expenditures on advanced process upgrades to optimize cost structures and concentrate on high-margin products, reducing price competition and supporting prices [4] - QLC products are widely used in SSDs due to their cost advantages, particularly driven by the demand for massive data storage from generative AI, prompting manufacturers to focus on QLC capacity [4] Demand Side Analysis - In the second half of the year, NAND Flash demand is affected by weakened consumer purchasing power and a slowdown in OEM procurement, with significant machine inventory in the channel awaiting clearance. However, the demand for Enterprise SSDs has surged due to server OEMs and CSPs actively clearing inventory and the upcoming release of NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips in the second half of 2025, maintaining positive overall demand for NAND Flash [4] Client SSD Market - Client SSD manufacturers have significantly reduced inventory levels through production cuts and supply strategy adjustments, leading to a more balanced market. The high demand for cost-effective large-capacity QLC products further supports this demand [5] Enterprise SSD Market - SSD suppliers are reassessing order volumes for products exceeding 120TB due to a surge in customer demand and are strategically increasing the production ratio of QLC Flash to meet market changes. Current market conditions indicate that supplier inventory levels have fallen below healthy standards, with a tightening supply expected to drive up prices in Q4 [6] eMMC/UFS Market - In the context of a profit-oriented NAND Flash supply chain, eMMC/UFS products face weak demand and intense competition from local manufacturers in the Chinese market, giving domestic smartphone brands greater bargaining power. With module manufacturers holding high inventory levels, price competition may further compress price increases, although manufacturers are expected to raise prices in Q4 to recover losses [7] NAND Flash Wafer Supply - NAND Flash wafer manufacturers are experiencing a temporary decline in output due to production line adjustments during process transitions. To compensate for previous losses, manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin product lines, further tightening wafer supply to module manufacturers. With ongoing enterprise AI investment momentum, supply is expected to remain tight, contributing to price increases in Q4 [9]