Nat-Gas Prices Rebound as US Weather Forecasts Turn Hotter

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US experienced a recovery, closing up 1.67% after hitting a four-week low, driven by forecasts of warmer temperatures that could increase demand for electricity and air conditioning [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - US natural gas inventories as of September 12 were 6.3% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating an abundant supply which has been a bearish factor for prices [2][6] - US natural gas production is near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - Dry gas production in the lower 48 states was reported at 107.4 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.8% [4] Market Trends - The demand for natural gas in the lower 48 states was recorded at 75.4 bcf/day, up 3.7% year-over-year [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals decreased to 14.4 bcf/day, down 5.8% week-over-week [4] - Electricity output in the US rose by 0.83% year-over-year to 81,346 GWh for the week ending September 13, supporting natural gas prices [5] Inventory Levels - The EIA reported a weekly increase in natural gas inventories of 90 billion cubic feet, exceeding market expectations and the five-year average [6] - As of September 21, European gas storage was 82% full, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 88% [6]