Geopolitical Risks From Russia Boost Crude Oil Prices

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased sharply due to concerns over Russian crude supplies following NATO's commitment to a "robust" response to Russian airspace incursions [2][3] - Economic reports indicating weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and the US have created bearish sentiment for energy demand and crude prices [2][5] Group 1: Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed up +1.13 (+1.81%) and November RBOB gasoline closed up +0.0218 (+1.14%) [1] - Crude prices experienced a rally after NATO's announcement regarding military options in response to Russian actions [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing concerns about the war in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially reducing global oil supplies [4] - The US proposed imposing tariffs as high as 100% on countries like China and India for purchasing Russian oil to pressure Russia into ending the conflict [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US S&P manufacturing PMI for September fell -1.0 to 52.0, below expectations of 52.2, while the Eurozone's PMI fell -1.2 to 49.5, weaker than the expected no change at 50.7 [5] - Weakness in global manufacturing activity is seen as negative for energy demand and crude prices [5] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - Iraq's agreement to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region could add at least 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global oil supplies, limiting the upside for crude prices [6] - India's crude imports fell -2.9% year-on-year to 19.6 million metric tons (MMT) in August, indicating reduced demand from one of the world's largest crude oil importers [7]