Here’s a bigger risk for the housing market than what the Fed could do to mortgage rates

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential actions to lower U.S. mortgage rates may not be beneficial and could lead to another boom-and-bust cycle in the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - Economists at Mizuho Securities express caution regarding the Federal Reserve's tools to artificially lower mortgage rates, emphasizing the risk of repeating past housing market mistakes [2][4]. - Current mortgage rates around 6.26% are not considered high historically, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) likely to be wary of using quantitative tools to depress long-term rates [4][5]. Group 2: Housing Market Dynamics - The issue of home affordability is more related to home prices than mortgage rates, indicating that simply lowering rates may not resolve the underlying problems in the housing market [5]. - The bond market has experienced "euphoria" due to expectations of lower rates, which has positively impacted the nearly $10 trillion market for government-backed mortgage bonds [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The recent rally in the mortgage bond market has led to a decrease in mortgage rates, prompting many borrowers to refinance, particularly into riskier adjustable-rate loans [6]. - Suggestions have been made, such as Pimco's recommendation for the Fed to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage bonds back into the sector to quickly reduce mortgage rates [6][7].