预计四季度国内双胶纸供应将延续宽松状态

Core Insights - The dual-coated paper industry is experiencing a divergence in capacity and output, with an increase of 1 million tons in new capacity in the first eight months of 2025, while production has decreased by 11.59% year-on-year [1] - The industry is still in a development phase, with large paper mills continuing to expand, leading to an enhanced supply capability [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic dual-coated paper market has shown weaker-than-expected demand in 2023, influenced by cultural education policies and macroeconomic conditions, resulting in delayed downstream publishing tenders and a persistent weak demand environment [2] - The average market price for 70g wood pulp high-white dual-coated paper is 4,788 yuan/ton, and for 70g wood pulp natural white dual-coated paper is 4,483 yuan/ton, reflecting declines of 11.14% and 10.75% respectively compared to the end of last year [2] - Monthly industry operating rates for dual-coated paper have remained between 48% and 53% from January to August, showing a significant decline compared to the same period last year [4] Future Outlook - There remains 1.25 million tons of new capacity expected to be released in the fourth quarter, which, along with the resumption of previously halted production lines, is anticipated to increase market supply [6] - The recovery of production lines in Shandong, with an annual capacity of around 1 million tons, is expected to further boost industry operating rates [7] - The dual-coated paper market is projected to maintain a loose supply state in the fourth quarter, with an expected increase in production of 180,000 tons, representing an 8% growth [7]